Systemic Risks

Systemic Risk Analysis – A New Approach

In a world dominated by turbulence and interdependency, fragility and complexity are the main new factors which are impacting the global economy and driving financial performance. While the unprecedented challenges affecting the global economy are a source of both opportunities and threats, traditional analytics technology is insufficient when it comes to capturing new drivers of…

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Probability of Default Versus the Principle of Incompatibility

According to the Millennium Project, the biggest global challenges facing humanity are those illustrated in the image above. The image conveys a holistic message which some of us already appreciate: everything is connected with everything else. The economy isn’t indicated explicitly in the above image but, evidently, it’s there, just as the industry, commerce, finance,…

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WEF 2013 Report on Global Risks: A Different View

The World Economic Forum 2013 report (available here) discusses a wide variety of global risks, their likelihood and potential impact. Risk, however, is a problematic concept. It is not related to any physical quantity and does not follow any laws of physics. It is a highly subjective entity based on another, even more slippery idea,…