Will Global Trade Recover Anytime Soon?

In a 2015 United Nations Trade and Development ConferenceĀ  reportĀ  “Trade Slowdown” one reads: ‘As of 2014 the trends in international trade were largely driven by the sluggish economic growth and the persisting economic and political turmoil in various part of the world. From 2011 to 2014 world trade grew at a rate of less…

Correlation is Charlatanism.

“…correlation is charlatanism” Photo: AP photo/Richard Drew “Anything that relies on correlation is charlatanism” is a great article. But is correlation charlatanism? Yes it is. But it is not for the reasons explained in the article. Here is why. Correlations are present everywhere. The concept of correlation is one of the key constructs of statistics,…

Which US Markets are Most Complex (and Risky)?

In a turbulent economy, punctuated by destabilizing events, resilience and complexity as the main new factors which are impacting the global economy and driving financial performance. Increasing volatility, complexity and uncertainty are becoming the hallmarks of our times. While the unprecedented challenges affecting the global economy are a source of both opportunities and threats, traditional…

Beyond Risk Management. What Are The Alternatives?

When facing large doses of uncertainty risk model-based methods of managing uncertainty don’t work. One thing is to manage an assembly line producing, for example, computer chips, another is to run a company in a globalized, turbulent, chaotic, non-stationary and shock-punctuated economy. Some things can be accomplished via mathematical modeling some cannot. Sure, you can…

Is It Possible To Make Predictions?

Prediction of the future has always been man’s dream. However, there is an overwhelming amount of physical evidence that this is quite impossible. This is because the future is permanently under construction. Therefore, as every second passes, the future is changed. The cause of this are the laws of physics. If the future were predictable…