Who Rates Ratings?

  The economy is a dynamic system which is far too complex for us to understand. Human nature is extremely complex and billions of irrational humans form the economy. How can such a system ever be thought to be efficient, in equilibrium and stable, as many prominent economists have claimed? But this system, like every…

Investing Based on Systemic Analysis of Markets

Suppose that one wishes to invest in US public companies and eventually two candidate portfolios are available. Suppose that both portfolios are built on companies having a resilience that is higher than that of the entire system of US public companies. The plot below indicates the resilience and complexity of this system which comprises over…

Greece. Brutum Fulmen?

The GDP of Greece accounts for a very small percentage of that of the Eurozone. And yet, the magnitude of the reaction that the Greek crisis is inducing in the markets and in the media is certainly out of proportion. The amount of market capitalization that has been lost in the past few days exceeds…

Major Stock Markets: Is A Crash Imminent?

Over the past few months stock markets have been registering very positive performance. Some analysts claim the markets are in a bubble condition. Bubbles can emerge from cognitive biases, herd behaviour and involve positive feedback loops which accelerate bubble growth. The S&P, for example, has tripled since its low in 2009. Since the 1990s, the…