How to Best Breakup The Eurozone?

(Blog written in May 2013) The Eurozone is in an extremely fragile situation with a one-star resilience rating for the past year and a half. The system is reaching critical complexity very quickly and inexorably (current complexity is approximately 390, the critical value at which breakup is inevitable is around 426). First of all, highly…

The REAL Debt of EU Countries

In our recent blog on the “corrected ” S&P ratings of the Eurozone, we showed how the spread between sovereign bond priving was artificially high. In this article we look at the REAL debt of each country. In a recent article published today we read (shortened version): “…. the study by a German Research Institue…

Italy Beats Moody’s.

Moody’s is the largest of the three major rating agencies. It employs 7000 people worldwide and posted sales of 2.7 billion in 2012. Since rating agencies are under heavy fire from the beginning of the financial crisis – in January 2011, the Commission of Inquiry Financial Crisis U.S. Senate stated that “The three rating agencies…

Complexity Profiling and Causality

A Complexity Profile is probably the most important result of a complexity analysis and it may be helpful when it comes to shedding some light on the issue of causality. Its interpretation, therefore, is of paramount importance. Before this is done, it is important to consolidate a few basic concepts. There are two types of…