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Brexit: the Most Likely Future Scenario

The laws of systemantics apply to highly complex systems and situations. As you read these laws think of the EU and of the recently celebrated Brexit.   Le Chatelier’s Principle: Complex systems tend to oppose their own proper function. As systems grow in complexity, they tend to oppose their stated function. A complex system cannot be…

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Index Complexity – Science Confirms Intuition

Which of these US market indices is the most complex: DJI, NASDAQ or the S&P? Surely, it is the NASDAQ because it is full of tech stocks. The DJI, being based on what we would call the real economy, is quite the opposite, more suited for investors who are less risk-hungry. The S&P clearly lies somewhere in the…

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Who Rates Ratings?

  The economy is a dynamic system which is far too complex for us to understand. Human nature is extremely complex and billions of irrational humans form the economy. How can such a system ever be thought to be efficient, in equilibrium and stable, as many prominent economists have claimed? But this system, like every…

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The Principle of Ignorance

  The Principle of Ignorance is a ‘corollary’ of the Principle of Fragility, which states:   Complexity  X  Uncertainty  =  Fragility   This principle states that highly complex actions (or business models) lead to situations of fragility in uncertain environments (e.g. markets). For example, a highly articulated portfolio may result to be fragile in a…